Intelligent Cars are within reach!

An intelligent car would be able to anticipate traffic congestion, hazardous situation while allowing the individual to arrive at destination in time, unharmed and comfortable (http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-10-intelligent-cars-hazards.html). This along with other features such as auto-pilot and intuitive features such as best gas price based on locations would complete the consumer expectations of an intelligent car.

The Techcast futuristic outlook expects smart cars to command 46% of the market size by 2016 with 73% expert confidence in the forecast (http://www.techcast.org/forecasts.aspx).

Currently the technology is somewhat limited to self parking on a number of different brands. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703734504575125883649914708.html

Active research (http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-10-intelligent-cars-hazards.html) is looking at cars communicating with each other and infrastructure therefore creating a network in which each car can be responsive to situations as they develop.  As outlined in the Honda video (http://dreams.honda.com/#/video_in)  with our capability to explore and dream and with the research now being pursued an intelligent car is definitely on the horizon.

2016 may be a bit optimistic as outlined by the Techcast forecast but I do believe that by 2020 such technology will be at least 40% of the consumer market.

I would use the Delphi Method. The Delphi method is ideal for this because the experts in the field would be able to contribute effectively since this is such a specific applied technology. Although personalities may be involved I believe it would have minimal impact.  

Two forces that may support Intelligent cars

   1)      Economical: As computer processing power increases and storage spaces for data continue to increase becoming more available and cheaper this will definitely decrease cost as it relates to incorporating smart technology in cars as well as the cost of the technology itself. As these cost decrease the affordability of an intelligent car will definitely increase making it an easier choice for the average consumer.

   2)      Global:  As the world population continue to increase, our global integration will be at a higher level. Technologies that were once separated because of significant geographical  barriers (oceans) will now be expected in societies that do business together on a daily basis.

Two forces that may impede its success.

   1)      Social:  As with any new technology there is expected to be some hesitance in its acceptance especially as it relates to automated control of a personal device. Once individuals are aware that it is safe and the numerous advantages example safety features acceptance will follow but this may take some time.

   2)      Political:  It is expected that the intelligent car will also be fuel efficient and such will be predominantly electric. Therefore the same situation may develop as that which occurred with development and research of the electric car as they were overlooked based on lobbying efforts of oil interest groups (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Who_Killed_the_Electric_Car%3F).

     Open or closed collaboration in the Delphi method may have a differing effect on the results depending on the technology being investigated. Technologies, for example those related to Global Warming, that lends itself to political sensitivities may be negatively impacted by open collaboration and positively impacted by closed collaboration as individuals may be more objective. As noted a closed collaboration will definitely take more time but may be more objective.

I therefore believe the collaboration type must be chosen dependent on the technology being investigated to achieve an object result.

Cornish, E. (2004). Futuring : the exploration of the future. Bethesda, Md.: World Future Society.

 Thanks
BryanB