An analysis of Technology’s Promise forecast for Intelligent Cars

Halal (2008) identifies the intelligent car as being able to direct drivers through traffic congestions, make cars safer, act as a communications center, and also having numerous automatic capabilities. The author outlines that traffic will still be problematic in the future but intelligent cars will provide a solution. The forecast as outlined by the author is for intelligent cars to command 30% of the mainstream market by 2010 to 2015 based on the TechCast’s bubble chart available at the time of writing. The latest bubble chart from TechCast indicates that with approximately 73 percent experts’ confidence this forecast has shifted slightly to command 30% of the mainstream market by 2017 (http://www.techcast.org/TrategicAnalysis2.aspx?FieldID=25 ).

 Five driving forces can be identified from Technology’s Promise for the intelligent car forecast. These forces are economical, technological, environmental, cultural, and political.

Technological
Cornish (2004) identifies technological forces as a major factor in human evolution and will continue to be so in the future. In a similar fashion technological forces play an integral role in the intelligent car forecast as portrayed by Halal. His reference to the chicken-egg problem identifies the need for technological solutions to facilitate the implementation of the intelligent car usage. The technological advances needed and being developed as outlined by Halal includes intelligent infrastructures with common standards that are compatible with intelligent cars. The author also makes reference to Volkswagen automation achievement in building the world’s first fully automatic car, Nissan’s development of the “Lane Departure Prevention ” system, Toyota’s “Intelligent Parking System”, and GM and other car manufacturers “fly-by-wire” steering. These are all features made possible by technological advances and make the realization of the intelligent car much more feasible. Technological forces are also driving the forecast from infrastructure advances referred to above but also further outlined by Halal citing the Japanese national intelligent highway system, intelligent highway system under construction in Canada, and the U.S. installing traffic monitoring systems and also the use of intelligent traffic lights which respond to traffic flow.

Economical
Technological forces are innately linked to economical forces. “Technological progress promotes economic growth” (Cornish, 2004, p.24). This linkage is also clearly identified in Halal (2008) treatise which indicates that economics is a major driving factor for the intelligent car forecast. The author outlined that “accidents caused by congestion cost the U.S. more than $200 billion per year” (Halal, 2008, p.84) and that “...the government of Taiwan has targeted this as the next trillion dollar market to develop” (Halal, 2008, p.84). It can be deduced from these two statements that intelligent cars would 1) decrease the cost involved in accidents caused by congestions and 2) act as income generating revenue for countries involved in the manufacturing of intelligent cars. Halal also refers to the expected fall in the cost associated with a complete intelligent car system “to decline from $2000 to $1000” (Halal, 2008, p.85). This decrease in cost would lead to better return on investment (ROI) for investors and a better market price for consumers.

Environmental
Halal (2008) indicated that wasted fuel and pollution contributed to the cost involved for traffic congestion. It can be deduced therefore that with the introduction of intelligent cars wasted fuel and pollution would decrease and of such have a positive environmental effect. Cornish (2004) in his treatise of environmental decline identifies that a number of countries have made efforts to reduce pollution and other environmental abuse. It is therefore in this context that environmental forces are viewed in relation to intelligent cars as being an enabling agent for positive environmental change. “…green practices are economically advantageous, they convey a favorable public image, and technical advances are making them cheaper and more practical” (Halal, 2008, p.26).

Cultural
“Millions of drivers have used intelligent auto systems in Europe and Japan for years” (Halal, 2008, p.84). Cornish (2008) treatise on deculturation speaks to people losing their culture but it also infers that on losing a culture one is also gained. Halal reference to the European and Japanese market of intelligent auto system combined with the embracing of environmental issues and stance for a greener environment as signatures to the Kyoto protocol (http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/items/2613.php ) creates a more accommodating culture. This above statements indicates that consumers in these markets are already familiar with the concept of an intelligent car and of such their markets would be far more accommodating to intelligent cars. Cultural forces as inferred above plays an integral role in the intelligent car forecast.

Political
As a force this is also inferred along the lines of the cultural inference. Halal (2008) mentions Europe, Japan, Taiwan, U.S., and Canada as regional entities being stakeholders in the development of intelligent cars. Germany can also be added to this grouping as an inference from the inclusion of Volkswagen as one of the car manufacturer highlighted by Halal for their automatic car. “…replace it with democratic government” (Halal, 2008, p.107) which are now responsible for enacting laws which governs the society we live in. Political forces are therefore a factor as they will be brought to fore to increase the likelihood of success of intelligent cars by providing the framework for implementation e.g. tax breaks for intelligent car manufacturers or the relevant laws which governs their use.

References

Cornish, E. (2004). Futuring: The Exploration of the Future. World Future Society.  ISBN-13: 978-0930242619

Halal, W. (2008). Technology's Promise: Knowledge on the Transformation of Business and Society. Palgrave Macmillan, NY. ISBN-13: 978-0230019546

http://www.techcast.org/TrategicAnalysis2.aspx?FieldID=25

http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/items/2613.php

IrieBam

William Halal's Nanotechnology

Halal, W. E. (2008). Technology's promise : expert knowledge on the transformation of business and society (pp.35-36). Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire [England] ; New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Nanotechnology Halal (2008) outlines that that nanotechnology is likely to reach mainstream use by 2015 with a range in possible years from 2010 to 2020. The author forecast is deduced based on the current level of researches and breakthroughs from such researches and the extent of research globally. Technological While outlining the forecast, Halal describes major technological breakthrough in nanotechnology. These discoveries include nanotubes, Ultracapacitors used as batteries, and nano-sized devices applicable to medicine. Without these breakthroughs and current research the projected outcome would be impossible. The technological force is therefore a major contributor to the success of Nanotechnology. Economical A major implication in the use of Nanotechnology is a reduction in the use of limited resources e.g. use of nanotechnology in flat screen displays which uses less energy than liquid Crystal Display (LCD) screens. This reduction leads to better ROI and therefore an increase in market shares to investors. Halal (2008) indicates that the potential market for nanotechnology is in the trillion dollar range. Economics as a force outlined above is another critical contributor to nanotechnology. BryanB

Intelligent Cars Animoto Video

Make your own slide show at Animoto.

Intelligent Cars are within reach!

An intelligent car would be able to anticipate traffic congestion, hazardous situation while allowing the individual to arrive at destination in time, unharmed and comfortable (http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-10-intelligent-cars-hazards.html). This along with other features such as auto-pilot and intuitive features such as best gas price based on locations would complete the consumer expectations of an intelligent car.

The Techcast futuristic outlook expects smart cars to command 46% of the market size by 2016 with 73% expert confidence in the forecast (http://www.techcast.org/forecasts.aspx).

Currently the technology is somewhat limited to self parking on a number of different brands. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703734504575125883649914708.html

Active research (http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-10-intelligent-cars-hazards.html) is looking at cars communicating with each other and infrastructure therefore creating a network in which each car can be responsive to situations as they develop.  As outlined in the Honda video (http://dreams.honda.com/#/video_in)  with our capability to explore and dream and with the research now being pursued an intelligent car is definitely on the horizon.

2016 may be a bit optimistic as outlined by the Techcast forecast but I do believe that by 2020 such technology will be at least 40% of the consumer market.

I would use the Delphi Method. The Delphi method is ideal for this because the experts in the field would be able to contribute effectively since this is such a specific applied technology. Although personalities may be involved I believe it would have minimal impact.  

Two forces that may support Intelligent cars

   1)      Economical: As computer processing power increases and storage spaces for data continue to increase becoming more available and cheaper this will definitely decrease cost as it relates to incorporating smart technology in cars as well as the cost of the technology itself. As these cost decrease the affordability of an intelligent car will definitely increase making it an easier choice for the average consumer.

   2)      Global:  As the world population continue to increase, our global integration will be at a higher level. Technologies that were once separated because of significant geographical  barriers (oceans) will now be expected in societies that do business together on a daily basis.

Two forces that may impede its success.

   1)      Social:  As with any new technology there is expected to be some hesitance in its acceptance especially as it relates to automated control of a personal device. Once individuals are aware that it is safe and the numerous advantages example safety features acceptance will follow but this may take some time.

   2)      Political:  It is expected that the intelligent car will also be fuel efficient and such will be predominantly electric. Therefore the same situation may develop as that which occurred with development and research of the electric car as they were overlooked based on lobbying efforts of oil interest groups (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Who_Killed_the_Electric_Car%3F).

     Open or closed collaboration in the Delphi method may have a differing effect on the results depending on the technology being investigated. Technologies, for example those related to Global Warming, that lends itself to political sensitivities may be negatively impacted by open collaboration and positively impacted by closed collaboration as individuals may be more objective. As noted a closed collaboration will definitely take more time but may be more objective.

I therefore believe the collaboration type must be chosen dependent on the technology being investigated to achieve an object result.

Cornish, E. (2004). Futuring : the exploration of the future. Bethesda, Md.: World Future Society.

 Thanks
BryanB

Intelligent Cars Forecast

Intelligent Cars Forecast

Water Canary

http://www.ted.com/talks/sonaar_luthra_meet_the_water_canary.html

In this presentation Sonar Luthra presents a device which will be able to determine potable water in a matter of minutes without the need for expensive equipment and delayed results which may take up to a day. This lifesaving device will lend itself to use particularly after catastrophic natural events such as earthquakes and hurricanes.

The two innovative ideas I found was 1) the use of light as a source for the determination  as opposed to chemical reactions; In this case I believe the old adage as "fast as light" is quite appropriate. The force here is expediency as the fastser the results are available the more effective is the solution. 2) Linking of the device to real-time GPS to map data that can be used to identify and distinguish between contaminated and safe areas; The need for a large scale solution across a geographic region where contaminated water may travel many miles as well as technological forces seems to be the primary factor for this innovation as this is accomplished by envisioning its use to accomplish the desired objective.

Irie Bam

Horizon Report 2011

The technology identified from the Horizon Report 2011 is Augmented Reality (AR). AR as defined by the report is "the layering of information over a view or representation of the normal world, offering users the ability to access place-based information in ways that are compellingly intuitive." This falls into the second adaption horizon and the report expects this to be in widespread use within two to three years. This technology I believe is already in use to some extent and reminds me of the emergence of Graphical Information System (GIS) over 10 years ago which provided the framework for AR. The layering of related data as it relates to a geographical map. Google Maps for instance currently provides three dimensional views of locations giving building size, addresses superimposed on location and also an actual picture of the location and I believe this to be just the tip of the iceberg that leads to AR.


The trend identified from the Horizon Report 2011 is "The technologies we use are increasingly cloud-based, and our notions of IT support are decentralized."  This I believe is a highly debatable statement and is somewhat contradictory. In cloud based technology I perceive IT support to be centralized as opposed to decentralized to a great extent as opposed to a decentralized IT support for stand-alone systems. Also "increasingly cloud-based" as opposed to what distributed computing which has been around for many years now? The cloud-based notions are primarily being driven by large corporations who stands to gain financially from its widespread acceptance when in fact it will always be cheaper and safer to maintain your own data especially as storage space and CPU performance ratio to investment dollars continue to increase.

Horizon Report Wiki. Does the modified Delphi process that they used to develop it affect the results?

I do believe the process affects the results. The most impacting phase is the multi-vote system which I believe can skewed the outcome as a result of the influence of a particular technology which has widespread use amongst the Advisory Board members. So although the group is diverse there may be enough similarity especially in this globalized society that leans the vote in a particular direction. 

Irie Bam.