Five driving forces can be identified from Technology’s Promise for the intelligent car forecast. These forces are economical, technological, environmental, cultural, and political.
Technological
Cornish (2004) identifies technological forces as a major factor in human evolution and will continue to be so in the future. In a similar fashion technological forces play an integral role in the intelligent car forecast as portrayed by Halal. His reference to the chicken-egg problem identifies the need for technological solutions to facilitate the implementation of the intelligent car usage. The technological advances needed and being developed as outlined by Halal includes intelligent infrastructures with common standards that are compatible with intelligent cars. The author also makes reference to Volkswagen automation achievement in building the world’s first fully automatic car, Nissan’s development of the “Lane Departure Prevention ” system, Toyota’s “Intelligent Parking System”, and GM and other car manufacturers “fly-by-wire” steering. These are all features made possible by technological advances and make the realization of the intelligent car much more feasible. Technological forces are also driving the forecast from infrastructure advances referred to above but also further outlined by Halal citing the Japanese national intelligent highway system, intelligent highway system under construction in Canada, and the U.S. installing traffic monitoring systems and also the use of intelligent traffic lights which respond to traffic flow.
Economical
Technological forces are innately linked to economical forces. “Technological progress promotes economic growth” (Cornish, 2004, p.24). This linkage is also clearly identified in Halal (2008) treatise which indicates that economics is a major driving factor for the intelligent car forecast. The author outlined that “accidents caused by congestion cost the U.S. more than $200 billion per year” (Halal, 2008, p.84) and that “...the government of Taiwan has targeted this as the next trillion dollar market to develop” (Halal, 2008, p.84). It can be deduced from these two statements that intelligent cars would 1) decrease the cost involved in accidents caused by congestions and 2) act as income generating revenue for countries involved in the manufacturing of intelligent cars. Halal also refers to the expected fall in the cost associated with a complete intelligent car system “to decline from $2000 to $1000” (Halal, 2008, p.85). This decrease in cost would lead to better return on investment (ROI) for investors and a better market price for consumers.
Environmental
Halal (2008) indicated that wasted fuel and pollution contributed to the cost involved for traffic congestion. It can be deduced therefore that with the introduction of intelligent cars wasted fuel and pollution would decrease and of such have a positive environmental effect. Cornish (2004) in his treatise of environmental decline identifies that a number of countries have made efforts to reduce pollution and other environmental abuse. It is therefore in this context that environmental forces are viewed in relation to intelligent cars as being an enabling agent for positive environmental change. “…green practices are economically advantageous, they convey a favorable public image, and technical advances are making them cheaper and more practical” (Halal, 2008, p.26).
Cultural
“Millions of drivers have used intelligent auto systems in Europe and Japan for years” (Halal, 2008, p.84). Cornish (2008) treatise on deculturation speaks to people losing their culture but it also infers that on losing a culture one is also gained. Halal reference to the European and Japanese market of intelligent auto system combined with the embracing of environmental issues and stance for a greener environment as signatures to the Kyoto protocol (http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/items/2613.php ) creates a more accommodating culture. This above statements indicates that consumers in these markets are already familiar with the concept of an intelligent car and of such their markets would be far more accommodating to intelligent cars. Cultural forces as inferred above plays an integral role in the intelligent car forecast.
Political
As a force this is also inferred along the lines of the cultural inference. Halal (2008) mentions Europe, Japan, Taiwan, U.S., and Canada as regional entities being stakeholders in the development of intelligent cars. Germany can also be added to this grouping as an inference from the inclusion of Volkswagen as one of the car manufacturer highlighted by Halal for their automatic car. “…replace it with democratic government” (Halal, 2008, p.107) which are now responsible for enacting laws which governs the society we live in. Political forces are therefore a factor as they will be brought to fore to increase the likelihood of success of intelligent cars by providing the framework for implementation e.g. tax breaks for intelligent car manufacturers or the relevant laws which governs their use.
References
Cornish, E. (2004). Futuring: The Exploration of the Future. World Future Society. ISBN-13: 978-0930242619
Halal, W. (2008). Technology's Promise: Knowledge on the Transformation of Business and Society. Palgrave Macmillan, NY. ISBN-13: 978-0230019546
http://www.techcast.org/TrategicAnalysis2.aspx?FieldID=25
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